Arizona Republic: Arizona politicians line up for doomed position

Commentary by Robert Robb

From the political notebook:

There is growing interest among politicians to run for governor in 2010. That simply demonstrates that politicians have more ambition than sense.

2010 will be a terrible year to be elected governor. Even if the economy recovers and even if Gov. Jan Brewer's sales-tax hike is approved, the state will still face a general-fund deficit of roughly $2 billion, or about 20 percent of expenditures.

The next governor will almost inevitably have to superintend a big tax increase, huge cuts in spending or some combination of both.

The public, as is its wont, won't believe that such unpleasant choices are really necessary. Other politicians will feed and reinforce that delusion.

In short, the next governor will have a miserable experience and undoubtedly end up being wildly unpopular.

Yet politicians are lining up for the job.

Brewer's retinue asserts that she wants to keep the job, although interestingly she hasn't taken concrete steps to set up a campaign apparatus, at least publicly.

Attorney General Terry Goddard is all but certain to be the Democratic nominee, and there's a good chance that the public will blame Republicans for the state's budget mess and turn to a Democrat for some cleanup.

This would be tragicomic. Despite his long quest to become governor, Goddard has the soul of a mayor. The issues of urban form and design are what most engage him. Dealing with the repair of state finances after this fiscal tsunami would be almost like a sentence for him. Yet run he undoubtedly will.

On the Republican side, State Treasurer Dean Martin and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker have openly declared an interest. Several others are mulling it.

Being a successful politician requires a high-degree of self-confidence and perhaps even a small measure of self-delusion. Undoubtedly these people believe they can make tough decisions and get people to respect and like them for it.

They can't.

Martin's potential candidacy is the most perplexing to me and not because of his recent family tragedy that others dwell on. I leave that for Martin to sort out on his own.

From a political perspective, Martin is in just his first term as treasurer. He has played the role, usefully, of the honest broker of information about the state's financial condition without getting bloodied in the fights about what to do about it.

There's a high probability he could get re-elected and continue that role for another four years. He would then have the inside track on the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2014.

And 2014 will probably be a great time to be elected governor. One way or another, the state's finances should be largely straightened out by then and the economy will probably be at least OK.

Martin probably thinks the state's current problems fit his expertise, and to a large extent they do. But they are also big enough to devour whatever politician takes them on.